Does Tesla Have A Shot At Setting A Record On Vehicle Deliveries?

esla (TSLA) is expected to report third-quarter vehicle deliveries sometime during the first few days of October, with Chief Executive Elon Musk gunning for a new record. A record-breaking quarter would likely have a big impact on Tesla stock.

Musk sent out an email to all employees last week saying, "We have a shot at a record quarter for vehicle deliveries, but will have to rally hard to achieve it." He also said "It's extremely important that we keep factory output as high as possible over the remaining 10 days. This is vital for the California market."

Tesla stock climbed 2.4%, closing at 429.01 on the stock market today.

Analysts polled by FactSet look for Tesla to deliver 144,000 vehicles during the quarter, a 59% jump from the prior quarter.

Tesla Stock Reaction To Vehicle Deliveries

Tesla smashed delivery estimates in the second quarter. The company delivered 90,650 vehicles in the quarter vs. estimates of 72,000 vehicles during the pandemic-induced economic slowdown. Tesla stock jumped 8% in reaction to the report.

Its record quarter, the one Tesla wants to beat, is 112,000 vehicles. That was achieved in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Production at Tesla's China factory has ramped up significantly since the fourth quarter of 2019. That should help the company achieve its goal on the production side.

Early this year, prior to the pandemic, Musk said he expected Tesla to deliver more than 500,000 vehicles this year. Despite its factory being shut down for six weeks due to the pandemic, and some disruption at its China factory, Tesla is sticking to that estimate.

At Tesla's Battery Day event last week, Musk reiterated that Tesla plans to see vehicle delivery growth of 30% to 40% in 2020. That's a range of about 478,000 to 515,000, or 497,000 at the midpoint.

Expectations On Model 3 Lowered

Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner on Tuesday lowered his estimate on deliveries from 140,000 to 130,000. He based that on slightly softer expectations for the Model 3 in the U.S. as wells as the global market for the Model S and model X. Rosner said the consensus estimate among bearish sell-side analysts is 136,000. He maintained a buy rating on Tesla stock with a price target of 500.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak expects Tesla to ship 144,600 vehicles.

Tesla stock is up about 395% this year.